Russian wheat exports on the rise

Russian wheat exports have been growing in recent weeks. According to customs, as of the week ended November 17, 0.82 MMT of wheat were exported compared to 0.52 MMT a week earlier. According to ports’ data, weekly wheat export totaled 0.50 MMT (0.33 MMT) of wheat.

We estimate wheat exports in November at 3.2 MMT compared to 3.0 MMT in October.

During the next weeks, shipments are expected to remain relatively strong.
Russian wheat has regained its competitive edge recently thanks to the faster increase in prices in the EU. I.e. as of today the spread between December Black Sea and December Matif is only $4/mt while in August-September it was $23-24/mt.

An additional factor is the export quota in the second half of the season which is likely to be introduced in February – June 2022. Traders can somewhat increase shipments until the end of 2021 to gain a bigger share in the quota. Individual quotas are to be distributed based on shares in exports in Jul-Dec 2021.

Last but not least margins for exporters remain good thanks to the slowly rising ruble market and the weakening national currency.

In October SovEcon estimated wheat exports in 2021/22 at 34.0 MMT. The next forecast is to be released shortly. USDA estimates Russia’s exports at 36.0 MMT.

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