Russian wheat exports in April 2019 and outlook for 2019/20

  • 2018/19 Russian wheat export campaign is almost over, exports are estimated at 34.9 mln t
  • 2019/20 Exports are estimated at 38.2 mln t on higher crop expectations

According to customs data, Russian wheat exports in April 2019 amounted to 1.9 mln t of wheat (-44% YoY), which was equal to March exports. From July to April 33.1 mln t of wheat (-5%) were exported.

It is likely that the actual export in April turned out to be substantially lower. According to data gathered from the ports, only 1.2 mln t of wheat were exported in April. Such a serious divergence must be associated with the fact that in April the customs added the previous months’ deliveries that had not been reported before.

The reduction in export volume is related to the high ruble prices and the limited supply of grain in the domestic market. Many traders are finishing their export programs for the current year and beginning to switch over to trading the new crop since the end of April.

The three largest wheat buyers remain the same in April: according to customs data, these continue to be Egypt (418 ths t), Turkey (379 ths t) and Bangladesh (280 ths t). The same countries were also the largest importers over the period from July to April, having purchased 6.9 mln t, 4.8 mln t and 1.9 mln respectively.

For more than five months there have been no deliveries to Vietnam that used to be one of the leaders among the buyers in the beginning of the season. Deliveries to Nigeria have stopped in April.

Russian 2018/19 exports campaign is almost over – total season exports are estimated at 34.9 mln t (USDA: 37 mln t), implying 1.8 mln t left to be exported in May-June.

In the new season thanks to higher crop we expect Russian wheat exports to grow to 38.2 mln t (USDA: 36 mln t), the second highest level after 41 mln t shipped in 2017/18.

Russia wheat exports in 2010/11-2019/20, mln t

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