Russian wheat exports in April 2019 and outlook for 2019/20

  • 2018/19 Russian wheat export campaign is almost over, exports are estimated at 34.9 mln t
  • 2019/20 Exports are estimated at 38.2 mln t on higher crop expectations

According to customs data, Russian wheat exports in April 2019 amounted to 1.9 mln t of wheat (-44% YoY), which was equal to March exports. From July to April 33.1 mln t of wheat (-5%) were exported.

It is likely that the actual export in April turned out to be substantially lower. According to data gathered from the ports, only 1.2 mln t of wheat were exported in April. Such a serious divergence must be associated with the fact that in April the customs added the previous months’ deliveries that had not been reported before.

The reduction in export volume is related to the high ruble prices and the limited supply of grain in the domestic market. Many traders are finishing their export programs for the current year and beginning to switch over to trading the new crop since the end of April.

The three largest wheat buyers remain the same in April: according to customs data, these continue to be Egypt (418 ths t), Turkey (379 ths t) and Bangladesh (280 ths t). The same countries were also the largest importers over the period from July to April, having purchased 6.9 mln t, 4.8 mln t and 1.9 mln respectively.

For more than five months there have been no deliveries to Vietnam that used to be one of the leaders among the buyers in the beginning of the season. Deliveries to Nigeria have stopped in April.

Russian 2018/19 exports campaign is almost over – total season exports are estimated at 34.9 mln t (USDA: 37 mln t), implying 1.8 mln t left to be exported in May-June.

In the new season thanks to higher crop we expect Russian wheat exports to grow to 38.2 mln t (USDA: 36 mln t), the second highest level after 41 mln t shipped in 2017/18.

Russia wheat exports in 2010/11-2019/20, mln t

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Starting wheat yields in Russia are -45% YoY

Russia started to harvest the new winter wheat crop. Starting yields are low. As of June 29, the average yield is only 2.4 mt/ha (4.4 mt/ha a year ago).

Andrey Sizov speaks about Russian grain quota and food nationalism

Food export restrictions are being lifted all over the world but Russia keeps its grain quota and the AgMin wants to use it again in the future. Andrey Sizov from SovEcon talks about food nationalism and Russian grain quota perspectives in our video.

Andrey Sizov speaks about COVID-19 news and wheat market

Andrey Sizov from SovEcon speaks about COVID-19 news and the world wheat market. When the COVID-19 panic is over what could support the market? The answer is the weather.

Russia’s wheat export estimate cut on weak pace, endings stocks are still the lowest since 2007/08

* Wheat exports forecast is down again
* Ending stocks are estimated at 6.6 MMT, the lowest since 2007/08

Russian wheat export forecast cut on weak pace and low crop

The export forecast has been lowered again. The reason is the current weak pace and low crop figures for 2019, released by Rosstat in December.

Russia targets the Chinese soybeans market. Should American soybean farmers worry?

In October Russian President Vladimir Putin said that China is ready to buy as many soybeans as Russia can produce. …