Russian wheat crop slashed to 73.7 MMT

SovEcon cut Russian wheat crop estimate from 76.6 MMT to 73.7 MMT after assessing the situation in Center and Volga Valley. The dry weather which we observed in May-June had a significant negative effect on crops in almost all key winter wheat regions.

SovEcon cut Russian wheat crop estimate from 76.6 MMT to 73.7 MMT after assessing the situation in Center and Volga Valley. The dry weather which we observed in May-June had a significant negative effect on crops in almost all key winter wheat regions.

Estimate for Volga Valley Federal District (FD), #3 wheat producer, was cut by 1.4 MMT to 11.5 MMT, for Center FD (#2) – by 1 MMT to 17.1 MMT. South FD (#1) was also downgraded, by 0.7 MMT to 30.9 MMT.

The total wheat figure now is slightly above 2018, when Russia harvested 72.1 MMT.

A long period of hot and dry weather in late May – June was a game-changer for the crop prospects this year. Many wheat regions received only 20-60% of normal precipitation during this period. Before mid-May yield potential looked significantly above average thanks to generally favorable weather during winter and spring. In early May our projection was 83.4 MMT. Since late May we started to lower estimates warning about negative weather forecasts.

We believe that now recent dryness and its effect on winter wheat is mostly reflected in the current total wheat crop estimate. There is a still question mark above crop prospects in the Asian part of the country, which mainly produce spring wheat. We still expect the region to produce a crop with a yield above average.

We guess that the market still tends to overestimate Russian wheat crop and doesn’t reflect recent downgrades in prices which currently are around $196/mt (FOB deep-sea, 12.5% prot.)

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Wheat prices sharply up as Russia introduced new restrictions

Wheat prices sharply higher after Russia’s tax news

Weather to improve in the Black Sea

Parts of the Black Sea are to get much-needed precipitation

SovEcon cut 2020/21 Russia’s wheat export estimate by 10%

SovEcon, a leading Black Sea agricultural markets consultancy, cut 2020/21 Russia’s wheat export estimate from 40.8 MMT to 36.3 MMT …

Wheat FOB prices rise on Russia’s customs’ delays

Russian 12.5% wheat prices in deep-sea ports rose $2 again to $259/mt (FOB) on customs’ delays, things are improving this week

Russian wheat tax and quota – market implications

Russia is introducing a flat wheat export tax of 25 EUR/mt (EURUSD = 1.21). What does that mean for global wheat market?

Russian wheat flat, grain processors lobby for export tax

Russian export market remains relatively flat. 12.5% wheat prices in deep-sea ports declined by $1 to $253/mt. The market continues to watch the weather in the Black Sea and follow closely a discussion about potential export restrictions.