Russian wheat crop estimate is sharply down on abnormally dry weather in June

Since the second half of May we have been anxiously watching the worsening weather conditions for the formation of new crop. We began to gradually decrease the forecasts for it a month and a half ago, giving notice of the probability of their further review in the event that the unfavorable weather conditions persist in June.

We can actually see that the past period of approximately a month and a half was quite unfavorable for the new crop due to the dry and hot weather that concurred with the grain-filling period for many regions. The starting yield in the South which is the largest grain-producing region in Russia has turned out to be extremely low compared to our expectations. (It would fair to say that they might have been a bit inflated in some cases).

We are sharply decreasing the forecast for the new crop of wheat, from 82.2 mln t to 76.6 mln t. First of all, this is associated with the average, instead of the expected good, crop on the South (the Southern Federal District and the North Caucasian Federal District). We expect the region to harvest 31.6 mln t vs. 30.5 mln t in the previous year and 34.3 mln t in 2017. The estimates have also been lowered for other regions.

We would like to point out that the forecast may be eventually lowered even more because it is highly likely that it does not fully reflect the damage caused to the winter wheat in the Center and the Volga Valley by the recent weather.

The rains that are expected in the nearest time may have a favorable impact on some part of the spring crops but it will probably be too late for the winter crops.

Follow the Black Sea grain market

Get your free trial of The Sizov Report — an analytical service covering agricultural markets of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan

Try for free

More Articles for You

Slower Russian wheat exports to benefit the US

MOSCOW, Russia — In 2017/18, Russia exported a record-high 1.5 billion bushels (41 MMT) of wheat and became the largest …

Ukraine’s bumper corn crop to pressure U.S. exports business

Ukraine is expected to harvest a record-high corn crop this year which threatens the US exports to Asia

Russian wheat FOB prices are down following global benchmarks

12.5% wheat prices continue to creep lower, last week they were down $1 again to $193 (FOB deep sea) on …

Russia’s wheat exports declined 14% in 18/19, further decrease is expected in 2019/20

In the 2018/19 (July-June) season Russia exported 35.3 MMT of wheat which is 14% lower than a year ago. In …

USA lost Chinese corn market even before the trade war thanks to Ukraine, fast-growing Black Sea exporter

USA lost Chinese corn market years ago to Ukraine, which exports rose six times in last 10 years. This year the country is expected to harvest another bumper corn crop.

Russian wheat traders face a tough start to the season

Russia’s traders face a tough start of the new export season. Farmers remain slow sellers, the ruble is strong and new crop outlook is deteriorating. July wheat exports are projected at 3.1 MMT, -18% YoY.