Andrey Sizov
02.10.2024
As of September 1, Russian on-farm wheat stocks totaled 24.8 million metric tons (MMT), a 14% decrease from the previous year, SovEcon said in a report. A month earlier, stocks had been at 22.5 MMT, which was 20% higher than the record level a year ago. Stocks have sharply decreased compared to last year due to relatively low Russian wheat crop and active exports.
The yield of Russian wheat has declined compared to recent years due to unfavorable weather conditions. SovEcon estimates Russian wheat production at 82.9 MMT, down from 92.8 MMT a year earlier.
At the start of the harvesting campaign, wheat harvesting in the European part of Russia proceeded at a high pace, which translated into high stocks a month earlier. By early August, Russia had harvested 54.2 MMT of wheat, compared to 43.2 MMT the previous year.
Despite the modest harvest, Russian wheat exports are proceeding at a high pace. In the first two months of the new season, the country exported 9.5 MMT of wheat, only slightly below last year’s record-high of 9.7 MMT.
SovEcon forecasts wheat exports for the 2024/25 season at 47.6 MMT, down from 52.4 MMT last year.
Despite the decline compared to the record-high levels of the past two years, stocks remain high, which will continue to support Russian exports.
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