Andrey Sizov
14.02.2024
SovEcon has raised its forecast for 2024 Russian wheat production by 1.4 million metric tons (MMT) to 93.6 MMT. Last year, Russia harvested 92.8 MMT of wheat. The forecast was upped due to favorable weather conditions.
The winter wheat crop is estimated at 67.7 MMT, up from 63.8 MMT in 2023; the spring wheat crop is anticipated to be 25.9 MMT, down from 29.0 MMT the previous year.
Weather conditions in most winter wheat regions remain favorable for crop. During the last month, minimum temperatures in all federal districts were 2-4 °C above the norm. A significant snow cover of 15 cm and above has been maintained in the Central and Volga regions.
Currently, the weather in the South is unusually warm, with temperatures 10-12 °C above normal. Such temperature fluctuations could threaten winter crops, but only in case of a sudden cold snap.
A sharp drop in average temperature is not expected in the upcoming weeks. Weather models forecast temperatures to be 1-2 °C above normal in the South and within or slightly below normal in the Central and Volga regions.
Weather conditions for the new crop have remained favorable over the last few months. Without serious frosts, optimistic prospects for the Russian crop could begin to influence global prices in the coming months.
