Andrey Sizov
08.04.2019
In February Russia exported 2.2 mmt of wheat compared to 2.4 mmt in January and 3.3 mmt a year ago. Exports continue to slow down gradually in view of limited supply of grain and relatively high ruble prices. Since the second half of February, prices went down in most regions; however, the rates of decline were considerably lower than the fall of export prices. The relatively strong ruble was another adverse factor for exporters.
At the same time, expectations and hopes of many market participants for a full stop of Russian exports are not realizing. We believe that this fact to be one of key drivers of the collapse of world wheat prices in February-March.
Amid lower export volumes Russia rely more on traditional buyers. Egypt regained the first position with its 628 ths t; Turkey went down to the second position with 503 ths t. These two countries accounted for a half of total wheat exports in February. Yemen with its 134 ths t was the third.
Deliveries to South-Eastern Asia are slowing down. Bangladesh that used to be among the main buyers, imported only 34 ths t vs 220 ths t in January. Deliveries to the Philippines decreased to almost zero from 117 ths t. It is the fourth month Vietnam has not bought any wheat. Indonesia is the only exception in the region with its import having increased from 32 ths t to 73 ths t.
