Andrey Sizov
11.03.2025
SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in March at 1.4 to 1.8 million metric tons (MMT), down from 4.8 MMT last year and 3.3 MMT on a five-year average. Exports are expected to decrease by two thirds YoY due to negative exporter margins and low competitiveness of Russian wheat.
The main restraining factor for exports remains the low margins of Russian wheat exports. The current margin for Russian exporters is negative, whereas in November, it was about $10.
Bids for 12.5% wheat at deep-sea ports remained at 17,500–18,000 rub/mt. Exporters are trying to push bids lower, but farmers continue postponing sales. A few traders shortly upped bids during the week to secure more grain promptly amid arriving vessels.
Russian farmers are reluctant to sell wheat, anticipating more favorable prices. The on-farm stocks are relatively low. According to Rosstat, as of February 1, on-farm wheat stocks (excluding small entities) totaled 13.7 MMT, down 32% YoY and 7% below average.
Quotes for Russian 12.5% wheat dropped by $2 to $246–250/mt FOB amid competition from other suppliers. This marks the first price reduction since the end of January.
In February, SovEcon estimated Russian wheat exports for the 2024/25 season at 42.2 MMT, while the USDA estimated it at 45.5 MMT. We believe that in the new WASDE report, the forecast for Russian exports will be lowered.
Low Russian export pace may support global prices.
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