Andrey Sizov
16.10.2024
On Tuesday, grain futures continued to decline. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.79/bu ($213/mt), down 1.0% from Monday. The December HRW wheat contract in Kansas fell to $5.83/bu ($214/mt), down 1.2%. The December Euronext wheat contract closed at €226.25/mt ($251/mt), down 1.1%. The December U.S. corn contract dropped to $4.01/bu ($158/mt), down 1.7%.
Wheat exports from the European Union totaled 6.6 million mt from July 1 to October 13, compared to 9.3 million mt a year earlier, according to European Commission data. Analysts warn that export figures from France and Italy for 2024 remain incomplete.
The French Ministry of Agriculture lowered its forecast for soft wheat production in 2024 to 25.4 million mt from 25.8 million mt the previous month. This would be the smallest wheat harvest since the 1980s. The corn production forecast was raised to 14.5 million mt from 14.4 million mt last month.
Corn harvesting in the United States is progressing at its fastest pace since 2012, according to USDA data. As of October 13, 47% of corn acreage had been harvested, compared to 42% last year, 39% on average over the past five years, and 44% according to market expectations.
For the week ending October 10, U.S. exporters sold 0.4 million mt of corn, below the estimated range of 0.6-1.1 million mt, USDA data shows.
In the first 10 days of October, agrometeorological conditions for the development and sowing of winter crops improved across most regions of Ukraine due to rainfall, according to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center. However, a moisture deficit persists in approximately 20% of the planted areas.
