SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – December 20, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Thursday, wheat futures declined. March SRW wheat closed at $5.33/bu ($196/mt), down 1.5% from Wednesday. March HRW wheat in Kansas fell to $5.43/bu ($200/mt), down 1.0%. March Euronext wheat closed at €229.00/mt ($237/mt), down 1.6%. March U.S. corn rose to $4.41/bu ($174/mt), up 0.8%.

The European association COCERAL released its first forecast for EU and UK grain production in 2025. Total grain production is expected to reach 297.8 million mt, up from 278.5 million mt this year. Wheat output is projected at 140.4 million mt, compared to 125.5 million mt last year. Barley production is forecast at 59.7 million mt, up from 57.3 million mt, and corn at 61.9 million mt, compared to 60.2 million mt.

In Argentina, 4.1 million hectares of corn have been planted out of a planned 6.3 million hectares, compared to 4.2 million hectares out of 7.9 million hectares at the same time last year, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The condition of 98% of the planted area is rated as good or excellent.

Tunisia purchased 100,000 mt of soft wheat at prices starting from $255.39/mt C&F and 100,000 mt of durum wheat starting from $339.49/mt C&F.

The Russian government issued a decree setting the tariff quota for wheat and meslin exports at 10.6 million mt for the period from February 15 to June 30, 2025.

SovEcon has reduced its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2025 by 3.0 million metric tons (MMT) to 78.7 MMT. This year’s wheat crop is estimated at 81.9 MMT, with a five-year average of 88.2 MMT. The 2025 crop is expected to be significantly lower than last year’s and the average, due to the poor condition of winter crops.

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