Andrey Sizov
18.09.2024
SovEcon has increased its 2024 forecast for Russian wheat production by 0.4 million metric tons (MMT) to 82.9 MMT. The forecast was revised due to high yields in the Asian part of Russia.
The wheat production forecast for Siberia has been upped by 1.3 MMT to 11.3 MMT, the highest level in the last 15 years. Production in the Urals is expected to reach 4.3 MMT, an increase of 0.2 MMT from the previous estimate.
Good wheat crop is expected in the Asian part of Russia due to high starting yield.
Wheat shipments from the Asian part of Russia are typically directed to the Republic of Kazakhstan. However, starting September 26, Kazakhstan will impose a six-month ban on wheat imports via rail and road transport.
Increased production in Siberia and the Urals partially offsets declines in the Central and Volga regions. Due to dry conditions in the Center and extreme heat in the Volga region, the forecast has been lowered by 0.4 MMT to 16.9 MMT and by 0.8 MMT to 17.0 MMT, respectively.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Russian wheat production is estimated at 83.0 MMT.
Dry weather is expected in most regions of Russia soon, which could provide additional support for harvesting.
Considering the record yield levels, the wheat crop forecast for Siberia and Russia as a whole may be increased further, although no significant growth is anticipated.
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