Andrey Sizov
16.10.2024
SovEcon has revised down its forecast for Russian wheat production to 81.5 million metric tons (MMT) from 82.9 MMT in the previous revision and 92.8 MMT last year. This marks the lowest production level since 2021, primarily due to a sharp decline in yields in Siberia.
The forecast for wheat production in Siberia has been lowered to 10.2 MMT from 11.3 MMT. Although the pace of wheat harvesting in the region is close to last year’s, yields have significantly dropped, especially in Altai and Novosibirsk.
Amid the unfavorable situation in Siberia, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture has reduced its wheat production forecast by 1.0 MMT to 83.0 MMT. In its October report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture also lowered its estimate of Russian wheat crop by 1.0 MMT to 82.0 MMT.
Currently, the Ural and Siberia regions are close to completing the harvesting campaign, with the share of harvested areas exceeding 90% as of mid-October.
The total grain crop in Russia is estimated at 122.9 MMT compared to 144.9 MMT last year.
Considering the impending completion of the harvest, significant revisions to the production forecast are not anticipated. Official data will be published by Rosstat in December 2024.
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