Andrey Sizov
15.01.2025
SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports in January to amount to between 1.8 and 2.2 million metric tons (MMT), down from 3.6 MMT a year earlier. Ukrainian wheat exports for the same period are estimated at 0.8 MMT, down from 1.6 MMT last year. Wheat exports from the Black Sea region have slowed due to lower supply.
According to SovEcon, during the first two weeks of January, Russia shipped 0.9 MMT of wheat, down from 1.4 MMT a year earlier. Ukraine shipped 0.3 MMT of wheat during the same period, down from 0.5 MMT last year.
Export pace was negatively impacted by lower supply. As of December 1, Russian on-farm wheat stocks stood at 18.7 MMT, down from 24.8 MMT a year earlier. SovEcon estimates Russian wheat ending stocks in 2024/25 at 6.3 MMT, down from 16.0 MMT a year earlier.
SovEcon estimates Ukrainian ending wheat stocks for the 2024/25 season at 0.8 MMT, compared to 1.2 MMT in 2023/24 and 4.2 MMT in 2022/23. Data on current stocks have not been published since 2022.
Meanwhile, wheat prices in ports are rising. By mid-January, prices for Ukrainian wheat with 11.5% protein in the Odesa ports had increased by $5 since the beginning of December to $215/MT (CPT). Prices for Russian wheat in the Novorossiysk ports have risen by $7 since the start of December to $170/MT (CPT).
Relatively low stocks will continue to limit exports and support prices further into the season. SovEcon estimates Russian exports at 43.7 MMT, compared to the USDA’s estimate of 46.0 MMT. Considering the volumes shipped and the quotas, the USDA’s current estimate of Russian exports seems unrealistic to us. Ukrainian wheat exports are estimated at 16.1 MMT сompared to the USDA’s estimate of 16.0 MMT.
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