Andrey Sizov
22.10.2024
SovEcon has released its first forecast for the 2025 Russian wheat crop, estimating production at 80.1 million metric tons (MMT), down from 81.5 MMT the previous year and below the average of 88.1 MMT. Wheat crop could decline to the lowest level in four years amid adverse weather in major winter wheat growing regions.
The yield for winter wheat is projected at 3.43 mt/ha, which could be the lowest level since 2019. The yield for spring wheat is estimated at 2.1 mt/ha.
The forecast for winter wheat yield has been lowered due to moisture deficits in the soil, with the topsoil moisture reserves across many parts of the country at their lowest in the last decade.
Over the last 30 days, most regions in the Center, South, and Volga areas have experienced dry weather, with precipitation levels about 60% of the norm.
Recent rains in some regions may slightly improve the situation. However, it is generally expected that winter wheat enters the cold season in poor condition.
The pre-harvest winter wheat area might decrease to 15.4 million hectares (mln ha), down 0.7 mln ha from last year. At the same time, the spring wheat area could increase by 0.6 mln ha to 13.0 mln ha, partially offsetting the reduction in winter wheat areas.
The poor condition of winter wheat raises concerns about an increased risk of winter kill. In addition, deteriorating financial conditions for farmers could further impact the new crop, as many will likely need to cut costs substantially.
Subscribe to our newsletter to receive Black Sea analytics delivered directly to your inbox!
