Andrey Sizov
16.07.2024
SovEcon forecasts July wheat exports at 2.8 million metric tons (MMT), compared to 4.5 MMT a year earlier and an average of 3.0 MMT. Wheat exports are anticipated to fall below average at the start of the new season amid declining exporter margins.
Sales of Russian wheat have slowed compared to last year. The volume of outstanding sales as of July 16 totaled 3.5 MMT, down from 5.5 MMT a year earlier.
The sales have slowed down likely due to lower exporter margins. Last week, Russian wheat was offered at $221 per metric ton (MT) FOB, down from $232/MT a year earlier. At this price, the margin is only a few dollars, in contrast to the double-digit margins seen for much of the past two seasons.
SovEcon estimates Russian wheat production for the 2024/25 season at 84.1 MMT, down from 92.8 MMT the previous year.
In the coming months, an increase in exports is expected, which could approach average levels. This could be linked to a revival in buyer demand following significant price drops in recent months. This week, tenders will be held by Egypt’s GASC and Algeria’s OAIC.
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