Andrey Sizov
25.09.2024
As of late September, only 8.3 million hectares of winter grains have been sown, compared to 9.3 million hectares a year ago and an average of the past five years. This marks the lowest level since 2013. According to SovEcon experts, the pace of grain planting lags behind average figures due to unfavorable weather in the main winter grain growing regions.
Planting paces in the South and the Volga regions are 0.4 million hectares behind last year’s figures. In the Central region, the area sown is 0.2 million hectares less than the previous year.
Over the last 30 days, less than 20% of the normal precipitation levels have fallen in the European part of Russia. The dry weather is a restraining factor for sowing and poses a threat to the already sown fields.
In the next two weeks, main weather models forecast continued dry conditions in the Volga and Central regions, with slightly wetter weather in the South.
Given the widespread moisture deficiency, it is highly likely that crops will enter winter in poor condition. The Volga region, where the vegetation period ends earliest and frosts begin first, is particularly at risk.
The slow sowing pace in two major regions of winter wheat production, combined with unfavorable conditions for winter crop development, sets the stage for a potentially smaller crop next year.
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