Leonid
16.05.2025
As of April 1, total wheat stocks in Russia amounted to 20.3 million metric tons (MMT), down from 27.5 MMT a year earlier, SovEcon analysts estimated based on Rosstat data. Wheat stocks continue to decline as the end of the season approaches.
Total wheat stocks include on-farm and off-farm stocks, excluding small entities.
Wheat stocks in the South, the key export region, stood at 4.7 MMT, down 49% year over year. Stocks in the Center amounted to 4.0 MMT (-35% YoY), in the Volga region to 5.1 MMT (-17%). Meanwhile, in Siberia, wheat stocks totaled 3.9 MMT, 2% above last year’s level.
In absolute terms, the year-over-year stock gap narrowed from 7.7 MMT to 7.2 MMT.
On-farm wheat stocks declined by 5.6 MMT compared to the previous quarter, to 9.8 MMT. Off-farm stocks fell by 2.8 MMT to 10.5 MMT over the same period.
Wheat sales slowed in the past quarter. According to Rosstat, farmers sold 7.9 MMT of wheat in January–March, compared to 10.7 MMT a year earlier. We believe processors are in no rush to purchase due to relatively high prices and expectations of the new crop.
Low stocks in key regions, particularly in the South, will act as a restraining factor for exports.
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