Andrey Sizov
22.12.2025
Russia has completed the 2026 winter-crop sowing campaign, according to SovEcon’s weekly report. As of mid-December, farmers had planted 16.1 million hectares of winter wheat, slightly below 16.2 million hectares a year earlier and down from 16.9 million hectares two years ago. Russia’s winter wheat area peaked at 17.8 million hectares in December 2021 before entering a downward trend, reflecting weaker profitability in grain production following the introduction of wheat export taxes.
SovEcon also expects a further decline in the spring wheat area, forecasting 10.7 million hectares next year, compared with 11.1 million hectares and 12.3 million hectares in the previous two seasons.
Profitability in Russia’s grain sector has continued to deteriorate. According to SovEcon estimates, pre-tax income of grain producers totaled 69 billion rubles in January–September 2025, down from 93 billion rubles a year earlier and 181 billion rubles in 2021 (USDRUB = 80). The financial position of farmers began to worsen after export taxes were introduced in 2021.
In contrast, wheat acreage has expanded among several of Russia’s competitors. Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy estimates the country’s winter wheat area at 4.7 million hectares as of mid-December, up from 4.4 million hectares a year earlier and at a five-year high. France’s Agriculture Ministry puts its winter wheat area at 4.8 million hectares, a three-year high, compared with 4.7 million hectares last year.
Russia’s 2026 winter-crop sowing campaign was disrupted by adverse weather. Heavy rains slowed planting for much of the season, with the year-on-year lag peaking at 0.5 million hectares. From October, precipitation in European Russia returned to near-normal levels, allowing planting activity to accelerate.
Looking ahead, SovEcon expects Russia’s total wheat area to decline to 26.3 million hectares in 2026, from 26.9 million hectares a year earlier, while average yields are projected to ease to 3.2 metric tons per hectare, from 3.3 mt/ha. As a result, wheat production in 2026 is forecast to fall to 83.8 million metric tons, down from 88.8 million metric tons this year.
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