Andrey Sizov
07.08.2025
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production by 0.3 million metric tons (mmt) to 83.3 mmt. A year earlier, Russia harvested 82.6 mmt of wheat. The production forecast was revised downward due to worsening crop conditions in the South.
As of August 1, wheat yields in the South—the key wheat-producing region in Russia—stood at 3.6 tons per hectare (t/ha), down from 3.8 t/ha a year earlier. Yields declined significantly year-on-year due to dry weather in major agricultural regions. Over the past three months, southern parts of Russia received only 60–80% of normal precipitation.
As of late August, harvesting in the South is nearing completion, making a recovery in yields unlikely. SovEcon has lowered its estimate for wheat production in the South by 0.9 mmt to 30.2 mmt. This is the lowest level since 2020.
The wheat crop in Rostov—the No. 1 wheat-producing region in Russia—is estimated at 8.1 mmt (-19% YoY), the lowest since 2015 (7.4 mmt). Production in Krasnodar (No. 2) is projected at 7.3 mmt (-26% YoY), the lowest since 2013 (7.0 mmt).
At the same time, as of August 1, average wheat yields across Russia exceeded last year’s level, reaching 3.7 mt/ha compared to 3.6 mt/ha a year earlier.
The rise in average yield is driven by strong crop prospects in the Central and Volga regions. In the Center, yields stand at 4.8 t/ha versus 4.0 t/ha a year ago, and in the Volga region at 3.3 t/ha versus 2.6 t/ha last year.
SovEcon also lowered its forecast for Ukrainian wheat production by 2.8 mmt to 19.8 mmt. The estimate was revised due to hot weather in southern Ukraine.
The USDA currently estimates Russian wheat production at 83.5 mmt and Ukrainian output at 22.0 mmt.
Lower production forecasts in the key wheat-producing countries of the Black Sea region could support global prices, partly offsetting pressure from relatively strong crops in other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.
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