Andrey Sizov
24.07.2025
Average prices for fourth-class wheat (12.5% protein) in the European part of Russia fell by 775 rubles week-on-week to 13,825 rubles per metric ton ($177/mt) as of July 16, according to SovEcon’s price monitoring. A week earlier, prices had risen by 100 rubles to 14,600 rubles per metric ton ($187/mt). Prices reversed after a short-term increase amid the arrival of the new wheat crop on the market.
The new crop started arriving actively on Russian markets. As of July 18, Russia had harvested 23.9 million metric tons of wheat. A significant share of the harvested crop is coming from the South (20.9 mmt), but harvesting is gradually shifting to the central regions.
By mid-July, harvesting had accelerated and the gap between current and last year’s yields had narrowed. As of July 18, 6.9 million hectares of wheat had been harvested (vs. 9.8 million hectares last year) with an average yield of 3.5 mt/ha (vs. 3.7 mt/ha).
Earlier, Russian wheat prices were supported by slow harvesting progress and low yields in the South. In early July, 2.5 million hectares had been harvested in Russia, compared to 15.3 million hectares a year earlier, with yields at 3.2 mt/ha versus 4.4 mt/ha last year.
Last year, wheat prices began declining in late May amid an early start to the harvest and bottomed out in early August, when winter wheat harvesting was nearly complete.
SovEcon estimates the Russian wheat crop at 83.6 million metric tons, compared with 82.6 million metric tons a year earlier. The USDA forecasts the crop at 83.5 million metric tons.
As the harvest progresses into other regions, domestic prices are expected to remain under harvest pressure in the medium term.
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