Andrey Sizov
04.06.2025
Bids for Russian 12.5% protein wheat in deep-sea ports dropped to RUB 16,500–16,800/t ($209), down from RUB 16,800–17,000/t ($210) the previous week, SovEcon analysts have estimated. Ruble-denominated prices have fallen to their lowest level since September 2024, pressured by weakening export prices and a stronger ruble.
The main factor behind the decline was the drop in export prices. Quotes for old-crop Russian 12.5% wheat fell to $240–243/t from $248–250/t the previous week.
The strengthening ruble remains another headwind for prices. As of June 2, the exchange rate stood at 78.61 RUB per dollar, compared with 101.67 RUB at the beginning of the year.
Russian exports remain sluggish. SovEcon estimates May wheat exports at 1.9 million metric tons (mmt), down from 4.5 mmt a year ago and below the five-year average of 2.2 mmt. According to preliminary estimates, June shipments may also total 1.9 mmt, compared with 4.2 mmt last year and 2.2 five-year average.
Optimism surrounding the new crop is also weighing on prices. New-crop wheat is expected to start trading in July.
In the near term, the ruble wheat market will likely remain under pressure. Support could come from a potential reduction in the export tax and low grain stocks. Possible weakening of the ruble may also be a supportive factor.
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