Andrey Sizov
15.07.2025
As of July 11, Russia had harvested 11.0 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat compared with 24.8 mmt in 2024. The 2025 wheat harvest is 56% behind last year’s level due to relatively slow harvesting progress and low initial yields.
Harvesting progress is slightly behind the average and significantly behind last year’s pace. As of July 11, 3.2 mln ha had been harvested, compared with 6.2 mln ha a year earlier and an average of 4.1 mln ha. Last year, the harvest began earlier than usual due to hot and dry weather.
Initial wheat yields are noticeably lower than last year. The average yield across Russia currently stands at 3.4 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha), compared with 4.0 mt/ha a year ago.
Harvesting is currently most active in drought-hit regions of the South—Rostov and Krasnodar. In Stavropol, where weather conditions have been more favorable, yields slightly exceed last year’s levels.
Hot and dry weather persists in the South, which may cause an acceleration in harvesting in the near term. At the same time, temperatures may reach up to 40°C, which would significantly increase weather risks for crops.
The USDA estimates Russia’s 2025 wheat production at 83.5 mmt. SovEcon’s updated forecast is available to subscribers.
The wheat harvest is currently gaining momentum. As harvesting extends, yields are expected to improve. However, hot and dry weather may negatively impact wheat in the European part of Russia. Still, aside from the South, the overall crop outlook remains relatively positive.
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