Andrey Sizov
11.03.2026
FOB prices for Russian wheat rose to $237/mt this week, according to SovEcon data, the highest level since $238/mt in August last year. Prices were supported by stronger futures and firmer export quotes from key competitors.
Wheat futures have rallied in recent weeks amid the start of the Iran war and a sharp rise in crude oil prices. From Feb. 1 to March 10, the May Matif wheat contract rose by $11 to $237/mt (€204/mt).
Over the same period, export quotes in Bulgaria and Romania (CVB) increased by $7 to $240/mt FOB, while French wheat rose by $7 to $245/mt.
After several unsuccessful attempts to lower purchase bids in Russian ports, exporters are now raising them. Bids for 12.5% wheat climbed to around 16,400 rub/mt ($207) this week, up about 700 rubles from February levels. Exporter demand has improved both in the South and in other regions.
Demand on the import side remains mixed. Buyers are facing higher FOB prices, rising freight rates and, in some cases, weakening domestic currencies. Freight rates on key Russian export routes have risen by several dollars per ton since late February. The Egyptian pound, for example, has fallen by around 10% since early March to about 52 per dollar.
Many importers are covered until the end of the current season or until the arrival of their new domestic crop. However, global coverage remains uneven. If futures continue to rally, demand from less-covered buyers could become more visible.
The wheat market may be entering a more complicated phase. Several major MENA importers will start harvesting their new crops in a few months and secured substantial volumes shortly before the war — Algeria and Saudi Arabia both held tenders in February — potentially limiting near-term demand.
At the same time, the recent surge in fertilizer prices is raising concerns about production costs for the next crop and could lend further support to futures.
Yet for much of the past year many buyers remained complacent, guided by the narrative of a global wheat surplus. Recent shocks — from crude oil to fertilizers — could begin to shift that mindset and prompt some importers to extend coverage.
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