Andrey Sizov
22.04.2025
SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in April at 2.0 million metric tons (MMT), compared to 5.0 MMT a year ago and an average of 3.5 MMT over the past five years. Russia continues to export wheat at below-average pace for the fourth consecutive month. Exports slowed down due to low profitability and decreased competitiveness of Russian wheat.
Sales of Russian wheat continue to slow. The amount of outstanding sales on Monday totaled 1.1 MMT, down from 1.3 MMT the previous month.
The competitiveness of Russian wheat has decreased. Last week, Russian wheat with 12.5% protein was offered at $250-252/mt FOB. At the same time, French wheat was quoted at $244/mt FOB, and wheat in the ports of Constanța, Varna, and Burgas (CVB) was offered at $248/mt.
Major buyers of Russian wheat are likely turning to other suppliers. Algerian state buyer OAIC purchased 570–600 thousand metric tons of wheat of various origins at $267.5/mt C&F. By our estimates, Russian wheat was $2-3/mt more expensive, likely making Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine the suppliers.
Amid relatively high prices, the profitability of export operations remains low. Exporters’ margins have been negative since the end of last year, compared to $5-10/mt last fall.
For now, SovEcon estimates exports in the 2024/25 season at 40.7 MMT. In April, the USDA estimated Russian wheat exports at 44.0 MMT.
The limited supply of Russian wheat at current price levels may support the global market.
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