Andrey Sizov
23.12.2025
SovEcon estimates wheat exports in December at 3.9 million metric tons (mmt), above 3.4 mmt a year earlier and close to the record 4.1 mmt set in 2022. Russian wheat exports accelerated amid improving export margins.
Lower domestic prices combined with stable export quotes lifted wheat export margins. From November to December, domestic prices for Russian wheat fell by 5% to 13,200 rubles per metric ton, pushing exporter margins from negative territory to several dollars per ton.
Increased wheat sales by farmers contributed to lower domestic prices. In September–October, farmers sold 19.5 mmt of wheat, exceeding last year’s level by 2.0 mmt and setting a new record. Many producers were forced to sell grain at lower prices to service loans and finance winter planting.
Demand for Russian wheat from key importers remains strong. In November, Iran purchased 0.9 mmt, the highest volume since early 2022. Turkey bought 2.8 mmt in the first half of the season, compared with 2.9 mmt in the entire previous season.
Russia has been actively exporting wheat in recent months. In November, Russian exporters shipped a record 5.1 mmt of wheat, up from 4.1 mmt a year earlier, while October shipments reached 5.5 mmt, just below last year’s record of 5.6 mmt.
In recent months, Russia has been gradually ramping up wheat shipments. However, due to a sluggish start to the season, cumulative exports in July–December are still down 2.4 mmt year over year and are estimated at 26.0 mmt. In its latest public forecast released in November, SovEcon projected Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season at 44.2 mmt.
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