Andrey Sizov
30.10.2025
SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in October at 5.1 mmt, up from 4.8 mmt a month earlier and above the five-year average of 4.5 mmt. Wheat exports from Russia may exceed average levels for the first time since November 2024. The increase was supported by a recovery in global wheat demand and higher exporter margins.
Major importers of Russian wheat expanded purchases in recent months and continued active buying in October. Last week, Algeria’s OAIC purchased around 600 tmt of wheat, while Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 455 tmt earlier in the month. GFSA also booked 500 tmt of wheat from affiliated companies in October. Traders expect a significant portion of these supplies to come from Black Sea origins.
Since early autumn, major importers of Russian wheat have been ramping up purchases. In September, shipments to Egypt reached 0.8 mmt — the highest level since February 2025. Exports to Turkey for the same period totaled 0.7 mmt, the highest level since November 2023.
At the same time, wheat exports from Russia’s competitors are stagnating. We expect Ukraine to ship around 1.5 mmt of wheat in October, down from 2.1 mmt in September. EU October exports are seen around 1.7 mmt vs 2.1 mmt a month earlier.
Exporter margins improved somewhat over the past month. In early October, margins were negative, while by the end of the month they reached up to $4/mt.
Weather conditions in the Black Sea, where storm frequency typically rises this time of year, remain a limiting factor for Russian exports.
In September, SovEcon estimated Russian wheat exports at 43.4 mmt, while the USDA forecasted 45.0 mmt.
The recent pickup in exports indicates stronger demand from major importers. However, it remains unclear whether this demand will prove sustainable or if buyers will slow down again in anticipation of lower prices.
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