Andrey Sizov
17.03.2026
SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in March at 3.8 mln t, compared with a five-year average of 3.1 mln t. February exports are estimated at 2.9 mln t, slightly below average. Russian wheat exports are accelerating amid improving competitiveness.
The competitiveness of Russian wheat is improving. In March, the spread between French and Russian wheat widened to $6–8/mt from around zero at the start of the year.
In recent weeks, margins for Russian wheat exports have turned positive, while at the start of the year they were close to zero or negative.
At the same time, wheat shipments from Russia’s main competitors have declined. According to Ukraine’s Economy Ministry, 0.3 mln t of wheat were shipped in the first half of March, compared with 0.7 mln t a year earlier. SovEcon estimates EU wheat shipments at 0.7 mln t in the first half of March, down from 1.1 mln t a year earlier.
Import demand for wheat remains relatively strong. Algeria’s OAIC purchased about 1.5 mln t of soft wheat through tenders from January through March, about 0.5 mln t more than in the same period last year. Part of Algeria’s imports will likely be supplied by Russia, where shipments have accelerated in recent weeks. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA has purchased 1.7 mln t of wheat since the start of the year, compared with 0.9 mln t a year earlier.
In February, SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.3 mln t to 45.4 mln t amid weaker competitiveness. Given the current strong shipment pace and improving competitive position of Russian wheat, we do not rule out an upward revision in the future.
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