Andrey Sizov
04.02.2026
By late January, export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein rose by $1 to $229–231/mt FOB, according to SovEcon’s price monitoring. Export prices increased for a third consecutive week, reaching their highest level since November 2025. Russian FOB prices were supported by a strong ruble, high domestic prices and rising European quotations.
Dollar-denominated wheat prices on Euronext rose 3.4% in January to $230/mt. European quotations were supported by broader strength across global markets, as well as short-covering by funds amid a move away from risk assets. A stronger euro also provided additional support.
A strong ruble continued to support Russian export prices. By late January, the ruble stood at 76 per dollar, compared with 79 at the start of the month. Against the backdrop of tight monetary policy by the central bank and weak business activity, the ruble strengthened to a three-year high.
In recent weeks, export prices were also supported by a modest rise in domestic market quotations. Average prices for Russian Grade 4 wheat (protein 12.0–12.5%) rose by 100 rubles over the past week to 13,100 rubles/mt. The increase was driven by stronger demand from exporters across most regions.
Improving import demand also provided some support to prices. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA purchased 907 thousand metric tons (TMT) of wheat at $259–262/mt C&F at an international tender, the largest purchase since February last year. Algeria’s OAIC bought 600–720 TMT at $253–254/mt C&F at an international tender. Part of the shipments is expected to come from the Black Sea region.
The large Southern Hemisphere crop appears to have already been priced into global markets. Argentine wheat has rebounded from a mid-December low of $206/mt and is currently trading around $210/mt FOB.
We believe the upside potential has not yet been fully exhausted and expect to see higher price levels in the coming months.
Subscribe to our newsletter to receive Black Sea analytics delivered directly to your inbox!
