Andrey Sizov
23.09.2025
Export prices for Russian 12.5% protein wheat rose by $1.5 to $228–229/mt FOB, according to SovEcon’s price monitoring. Before that, Russian wheat prices had been declining for four straight weeks. Prices were supported by limited wheat supply, a stronger ruble, and global market conditions.
Russian wheat supply remains limited, especially in the South, the country’s key export region. One of the factors behind the reduced supply there was a poor crop caused by unfavorable weather. SovEcon estimates the 2025 wheat crop in the South at 30.9 mmt compared with 32.6 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 35.0 mmt.
The strengthening of the Russian ruble also supported export prices. On Friday, the Central Bank of Russia set the dollar exchange rate at 83.2 rubles, down 2.9% week on week.
The Russian wheat export tax will be set at 655.6 rub/mt ($7.9/mt) starting September 24, compared with 495.9 rub/mt ($5.8/mt) a week earlier.
Wheat prices in other countries also moved higher. CVB (Bulgaria and Romania) prices rose by $3–5 last week to $235–237/mt. French wheat prices increased by $6 to $232/mt.
The strengthening of physical market prices may indicate that the actual supply and demand balance, particularly in Europe and the Black Sea region, is tighter than futures suggest.
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