Andrey Sizov
09.09.2025
Last week, FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat fell by $4 to $228–230/mt, the lowest since early July. Russian export prices declined on weaker domestic prices, high supply, and sluggish demand.
From mid-August to early September, Russian wheat export prices dropped by $11/mt. Such a decline is unusual for this time of year, as prices typically bottom out in July–August.
Weaker domestic wheat prices weighed on export values. From mid-August to early September, Russian 12.5% wheat prices fell by 575 rubles/mt ($7/mt) to 14,000 rubles/mt ($174/mt).
An increase in Russian wheat supply has also pressured prices. In September, SovEcon raised its Russian wheat production forecast by 0.7 mmt to 86.1 mmt. A year earlier, Russian farmers harvested 82.6 mmt.
Demand from major importers remains weaker than last year. SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports in the first two months of the new season at 6.4 mmt versus 9.9 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 8.1 mmt. Shipments to Egypt during this period amounted to 1.1 mmt, down from 1.5 mmt a year ago.
Global market dynamics are also pressuring Russian values. From mid-August to early September, French soft wheat prices on Euronext fell by €6.25/mt ($7/mt) to €189/mt ($221/mt). Similar trends were observed in U.S., Bulgarian, and Romanian wheat.
Falling Russian wheat prices remain a key bearish factor for the global market. However, this is partly offset by relatively limited supply from Russian exporters.
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