Andrey Sizov
03.12.2025
Since mid-November, export prices for Russian 12.5% protein wheat have fallen by $4/mt to $228–230/mt FOB, according to SovEcon’s price monitoring. Quotes have dropped to their lowest level since mid-September amid strong competition from Australian and Argentine wheat.
Export prices are falling under pressure from improving crop outlooks in the Southern Hemisphere. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat crop at a record 25.5 million metric tons (mmt). Australia’s ABARES projects wheat output at 35.6 mmt, which could become the country’s third-largest crop on record.
In Argentina, prices have declined by $7/mt since mid-November to $208/mt FOB, while in Australia they have fallen by $4/mt to $249/mt FOB.
Large wheat buyers may soon pause purchases as they wait for the Southern Hemisphere crop to reach the market. This primarily concerns Egypt, Russia’s top wheat buyer. In November, media reported that Egypt had secured enough wheat to cover domestic needs through the end of February 2026.
Prices are supported by slow farmer sales in many regions. Farmers are reluctant to market wheat as prices are near or below production costs in many cases.
Another factor is relatively low global wheat stocks. According to SovEcon estimates, the stock-to-use ratio for major exporters will reach 16.6% this season — slightly above the previous two seasons (15.1–15.4%) but well below the peak of 19.4%.
The strong Southern Hemisphere crop may not yet be fully priced in. However, given historically low stocks, the downside potential for global prices appears limited.
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