Andrey Sizov
02.09.2025
SovEcon raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.4 mmt to 43.7 mmt. A year earlier, Russia shipped 40.8 mmt of wheat. The forecast was revised upward amid favorable crop prospects, though shipments in the first months of the season remain historically low.
The export forecast was revised following an increase in the production estimate to 85.4 mmt from 83.6 mmt in July. A year earlier, Russian farmers harvested 82.6 mmt. The upward revision was driven by improved crop prospects in the Urals and Siberia.
Despite relatively good crop prospects, we are not ready to raise the estimate more significantly given the sluggish start of the export campaign. SovEcon estimates cumulative wheat exports in July and August at 6.1 mmt versus 9.9 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 8.1 mmt. September export figures are also expected to be historically low.
Major importers have slowed purchases of Russian wheat this season. In July–August, shipments to Egypt amounted to 1.1 mmt compared with 1.5 mmt a year earlier, while Algeria imported 0.1 mmt versus 0.5 mmt last year.
In the coming months, importers may start turning to new crops from Argentina and Australia, where outlooks are improving. In September, Australia’s farm ministry raised its 2025/26 wheat production forecast to 33.8 mmt from 30.6 mmt in June, 22% above the 10-year average. In Argentina, wheat production is expected by market participants to exceed 20 mmt, up from 18.6 mmt a year earlier.
The ruble remains relatively stable despite a sharp drop in energy prices. Since early August, the ruble has hovered around 80 per dollar.
Adding to Russian exporters’ challenges, FOB prices have been falling in recent weeks. Between mid- and late August, export prices fell by $7/mt to $233/mt.
The USDA projects Russian wheat exports at 46.0 mmt.
We expect some growth in exports as domestic wheat prices in ruble terms continue to decline. In recent weeks, exporters’ bids have fallen sharply. Against this backdrop, we expect to see further declines in export prices and a gradual recovery in shipments.
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