Andrey Sizov
30.07.2025
SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 0.4 million metric tons (mmt) to 43.3 mmt. SovEcon estimates that 40.8 mmt of wheat were shipped from Russia in 2024/25. Following a sluggish start, the center expects a seasonal acceleration in exports in the near term.
The export forecast was revised after the wheat crop estimate was raised to 83.6 mmt from 83.0 mmt. The revision reflects improved crop conditions in central regions of Russia.
The new export season got off to a slow start. SovEcon estimates wheat exports in July at 2.1 mmt, compared to 3.9 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 3.1 mmt. Going forward, monthly shipments may increase to 4–5 mmt and higher as the new crop reaches the market.
Weaker domestic wheat prices may also support exports. Average prices for 12.5% protein wheat in the European part of Russia fell to 14,175 rub per metric ton ($182/mt) by the end of July, down from 14,500 rub/mt ($185/mt) in early July and 14,975 rub/mt ($190/mt) in June.
The ruble exchange rate will be an important factor for exports. Contrary to expectations, the Russian currency remained strong in recent months. However, on July 30, the dollar rate on Forex rose to 81.84 rub — the highest since early May. The ruble’s weakening followed a 2-point interest rate cut to 18% and a new ultimatum from Trump to the Kremlin.
On the global market, Russia may again face strong competition from Romania and Bulgaria. Ukraine will also be an active competitor, despite its restricted agricultural exports to the EU this season. France is expected to become more active later in the season, as its wheat crop has significantly improved compared to last year’s poor performance.
The USDA estimates Russian wheat exports in 2025/26 at 46.0 mmt.
Following an abnormally weak start, we expect Russian exports to accelerate, which will put pressure on global prices.
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