Andrey Sizov
18.03.2025
Last week, bids for Russian 12.5% wheat in deep-sea ports dropped to 17,300–17,800 rub/mt from 17,500–18,000 rub/mt the previous week, as per SovEcon estimate. This marks the first price decline since mid-February. The price drop was driven by exporters lowering purchase prices.
Exporters have repeatedly attempted to lower purchase prices to improve the profitability of their operations. In recent months, exporters’ margins have been negative.
As spring approaches, grain supply has slightly increased as agricultural producers finalize plans for the new season.
The decline in purchase prices and increased profitability have somewhat revitalized export sales. The volume of contracts for the sale of Russian wheat increased to 1.4 mmt from 1.1 mmt a week earlier.
However, a significant increase in export volume is not expected in the short term. SovEcon estimates Russian wheat exports at 1.5 mmt, compared to 4.8 mmt a year earlier and an average of 3.3 mmt over the past five years.
In February, SovEcon assessed Russian wheat exports for the season at 42.2 mmt. Considering the current record-low export pace for recent years, the export estimate will be lowered in the next forecast. In the March report, the USDA lowered its export estimate by 0.5 mmt to 45.0 mmt.
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