Andrey Sizov
07.10.2025
Last week, Russian 12.5% wheat bids in deep-sea ports fell to 16,500–16,800 rub/mt from 16,800–17,000 rub/mt a week earlier, according to SovEcon’s price monitoring. This is the first decline in bids since late August. Prices dropped amid a stronger ruble and weak wheat demand in Russia’s non-southern regions.
The ruble strengthened sharply against the U.S. dollar last week. As of Oct. 3, the exchange rate stood at 81 rubles per dollar, down 3.1% week on week. Meanwhile, export prices remained at $230–232/mt (FOB). As a result, exporters’ margins turned negative, prompting them to lower purchase prices to maintain profitability.
Following the decline in purchase prices, domestic prices for 12.5% protein wheat fell by 275 rub to 14,000 rub/mt. Prices were pressured by weaker demand from exporters outside the South and falling purchase prices in southern regions of Russia.
Farmers need to accelerate sales to replenish cash flow, and many are willing to sell wheat at lower prices. However, some producers are postponing grain sales to focus on harvesting and selling sunflower and corn.
Exporters are likely to continue pushing prices down in an effort to improve their margins, which remain low by recent years’ standards. They may be supported by gradually increasing grain supply. Domestic prices could find support from the current pickup in exports, despite still relatively high prices for this season. SovEcon raised its September export estimate by 0.3 mmt to 4.6 mmt, compared with a five-year average of 4.9 mmt. Wheat exports in October are forecast at 4.7–5.2 mmt, versus a five-year average of 4.5 mmt.
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