Andrey Sizov
27.08.2025
Russian 12.5% wheat bids fell by 750 rub to 16,150 rub/mt ($201/mt) last week, SovEcon’s price monitoring showed. Exporters lowered prices for the first time since early June amid weak demand, relatively high production pace, and declining export prices.
Exporter demand remains subdued amid sluggish foreign trade. SovEcon projects Russian wheat exports in August at 4.0 mmt, compared with 6.0 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 5.0 mmt.
Import demand is also weak. Wheat buyers are holding off in anticipation of lower prices, while exporters are reluctant to sell, seeking to preserve positive margins.
Large importers are limiting purchases of Russian wheat. According to media reports, Egypt’s state agency Mostakbal Misr in recent weeks bought 400,000 mt of French wheat and several 30,000 mt lots from Ukraine and Romania. No purchases from Russia were reported.
The ruble remains relatively stable, trading around 80 per dollar since early August.
The weakening of export wheat prices also contributed to the decline in Russian bids. By the end of last week, Russian wheat export prices (FOB) fell by $3 to $236–239/mt.
Additional vessel inspections in the Kerch Strait have also become a constraint for exports. As a result, leaving the Sea of Azov may now take several extra days, leading to a sharp rise in freight costs.
In August, bids for Russian wheat begin to seasonally decline as the new crop from non-southern regions enters the market.
This year, Russian wheat production is somewhat higher than last year. SovEcon estimates 2025 wheat production at 85.4 mmt, compared with 82.6 mmt a year earlier. At the same time, farmers this season will likely be forced to sell grain more actively due to worsening financial conditions.
Lower wheat bids, combined with high supply, may support Russian wheat exports in the medium term, adding pressure on global prices.
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