Andrey Sizov
22.01.2025
SovEcon has left its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat production unchanged at 78.7 million metric tons (MMT), down from 82.4 MMT last year. While the anomalously warm weather has not yet caused significant issues for plants, the associated risks remain elevated.
Due to the abnormally warm weather, the snow cover accumulated at the end of last year has thinned in the Center and disappeared in the South. In the Volga region, the snow cover remains relatively high.
Soil temperatures in the Center and the South have also significantly exceeded the norm, causing winter crops in some regions to start vegetating. Frosts during the vegetation period or in the absence of sufficient snow cover pose a significant risk to winter crops, potentially resulting in winterkill.
Another source of risk is ice crust formation in the Center. Melting snow leads to the formation of an ice crust, which in recent years has caused significant losses to winter crop areas.
The plants entered the winter in a condition significantly worse than normal. As per SovEcon estimate, based on data from Roshydromet (RHM), about 37% of crops as of November were in poor condition, the highest level in at least the last 20 years.
For now there are no cold temperatures in the short term forecast. However, taking into account current weather setup and extremely poor crop conditions at the start of the winter any serious cold snap could lead to substantial winterkill.
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