Andrey Sizov
24.06.2025
In June, Russian exporters set bids for a new wheat crop at RUB 14,500/t ($184/t). A year ago, wheat prices were at 15,250 rub/mt ($173/mt).
In 2024, new crop prices declined from early to mid-July, hitting a low of 14,750 rub/mt ($167/mt). They then rose through the end of the year, peaking in October at 17,900 rub/mt ($186/mt).
Export quotes for Russian wheat last week were at $226–230/t, SovEcon estimated. A year earlier, prices were at $234–236/t.
On the one hand, quotes may come under pressure in the near term amid the arrival of the new crop and a possible decline in FOB. The difficult financial situation may lead to more active selling by farmers who need to replenish working capital.
On the other hand, support could come from mediocre crop prospects in the South combined with low stocks and a potential reduction in the export tax. Additionally, current CPT prices already appear undervalued relative to prevailing FOB levels.
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