SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – September 8, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

Grain futures were flat to lower on Friday. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.19/bu ($191/mt; unchanged from Thursday). The December HRW wheat contract fell to $5.05/bu ($186/mt; -0.2%). The December Euronext wheat contract settled at €189.00/mt ($221/mt; -0.4%). The December U.S. corn contract declined to $4.18/bu ($165/mt; -0.4%).

For the week ending August 28, U.S. exporters sold 0.3 mmt of wheat, below market expectations of 0.4–0.7 mmt, according to USDA data.

Flooding in Punjab may have destroyed around 30% of Pakistan’s total wheat stocks, according to Ahmad Jawad of the Pakistan Business Forum (PBF).

FAO’s Cereal Price Index declined to 105.6 points in August, down 0.8 points from July and 4.5 points from August last year. The FAO Food Price Index rose to 130.1 points, up 0.1 point from July and 8.4 points above 2024 levels.

FAO raised its forecast for 2025 global grain production by 35.6 mmt to 2,961 mmt. Global grain output in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, 3.5% above last year. The world wheat production estimate was lowered by 0.4 mmt to 805.3 mmt.

Russia’s wheat export duty will rise to 168.6 rub/mt starting September 10, up from 134.4 rub/mt a week earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said.

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