Andrey Sizov
20.09.2024
On Thursday, grain futures were stable or slightly down. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.65/bu ($208/ton; -1.8% compared to Wednesday). The December HRW wheat contract in Kansas City fell to $5.64/bu ($207/ton; -2.4%). The December Euronext wheat contract closed at €215.75/ton ($241/ton; -1.3%). The December U.S. corn contract dropped to $4.07/bu ($160/ton; -1.4%).
The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its global wheat production forecast by 1 million tons compared to last month, now estimating 798 million tons. A year earlier, IGC estimated production at 795 million tons. The European wheat production forecast was reduced by 2.4 million tons to 122.4 million tons.
The share of Argentine wheat in good or excellent condition declined to 71%, down from 80% the previous week and 78% last year, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Crop conditions are deteriorating amid dry weather in the country. Optimal moisture levels were recorded for 49% of the crop, compared to 55% last week and 66% a year ago.
Ukraine’s corn export potential for the 2024/25 season is expected to shrink to 15-17 million tons, down from about 30 million tons a year earlier, according to analysts from the Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
SovEcon has increased its 2024 forecast for Russian wheat production by 0.4 million metric tons (MMT) to 82.9 MMT due to high yields in the Asian part of Russia.
