SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – September 19, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

U.S. grain futures continued to decline on Thursday. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.24/bu ($193/mt; -0.8% from Wednesday). The December HRW wheat contract fell to $5.10/bu ($187/mt; -1.2%). The December Euronext wheat contract settled at €192.25/mt ($227/mt; unchanged). The December U.S. corn contract declined to $4.24/bu ($167/mt; -0.7%).

Brazil’s Conab released its first estimate for 2025/26 corn production, forecasting the crop at 138.3 mmt, down from 139.7 mmt in 2024/25. However, corn exports are expected to increase to 46.5 mmt, up from 40.0 mmt this season.

The share of Argentina’s wheat crop rated good or excellent declined to 97% (-1 percentage point week over week) but remains well above last year’s level and the five-year average of 71%, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported.

The USDA reported that exporters sold 110 tmt of corn to Mexico.

SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2025 by 1.1 mmt to 87.2 mmt. The figure is expected to be well above last year’s 82.6 mmt and close to the multi-year average of 88.3 mmt. The revision follows record-high yields in Siberia and the Urals.

More Articles for You

Russian 2026/27 Wheat Export Forecast Cut by 4.7 MMT

The 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast has been cut by 4.7 MMT to 36.7 MMT, according to SovEcon’s latest report. …

Russia’s winter crop sowing pace is the slowest since 2013

As of Sept. 18, Russia had planted 6.1 million hectares of winter grains, down from 7.1 million hectares a year …

Russia, Ukraine Wheat Exports Set for Lowest Jul-Sep Since 2010

The first quarter of the 2026/27 season is nearing its end with Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports running at exceptionally …

Saudi Arabia Cancels Wheat Tender as Prices Surge

The absence of competitive Black Sea wheat is starting to disrupt international tenders, according to the latest SovEcon report. Saudi …

Russian Wheat Exports Start 2026/27 at Half Last Year’s Pace

Russian wheat exports are expected to remain around 2.0 mmt in September, compared with 4.6 mmt a year earlier, according …

Russia May Suspend Wheat Export Duty

Russia is likely to suspend its floating grain export duties through the end of 2026. The Agriculture Ministry is preparing …