SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – September 19, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Wednesday, grain prices were stable or slightly declined. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.76/bu ($211/mt; unchanged from Tuesday). The December HRW wheat contract in Kansas fell to $5.78/bu ($213/mt; -0.3%). The December Euronext wheat contract closed at €218.50/mt ($243/mt; -0.3%). The December corn contract remained at $4.13/bu ($162/mt; unchanged).

According to FranceAgriMer, 41% of French soft wheat exceeded the 11.5% protein threshold, compared to the five-year average of 58%. The quality of the crop fell below average due to unfavorable weather conditions for most of the season.

France’s soft wheat exports outside the EU are estimated at 4.0 million tons, down from the July estimate of 7.5 million tons, FranceAgriMer reported. Agency representatives noted that exports are expected to drop by 61% compared to last year.

From September 1 to 18, Ukraine shipped 1.5 million tons of grain, compared to 2.1 million tons the previous month and 1.3 million tons a year ago, according to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. Since the start of the season, total shipments have reached 8.9 million tons, compared to 5.9 million tons last year.

A state of emergency is being declared across the entire Krasnoyarsk region due to heavy rains, reported the region’s Deputy Governor Sergey Ponomarenko.​

SovEcon has increased its 2024 forecast for Russian wheat production by 0.4 million metric tons (MMT) to 82.9 MMT due to high yields in the Asian part of Russia.

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