SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – September 17, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

U.S. grain futures rose on Tuesday. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.34/bu ($196/mt; +1.7% from Monday). The December HRW wheat contract increased to $5.23/bu ($192/mt; +1.8%). The December Euronext wheat contract settled at €191.25/mt ($227/mt; +0.1%). The December U.S. corn contract climbed to $4.29/bu ($169/mt; +1.5%).

Frosts ranging from -2°C to -5°C are expected in the coming days across the Volga region, Siberia, and the Urals, said Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Hydrometeorological Center.

France’s Agriculture Ministry raised its 2025 soft wheat production estimate to 33.3 mmt, up 0.2 mmt from last month.

The EU crop monitoring agency MARS raised its estimate for Ukraine’s wheat production to 23.0 mmt, up from 20.7 mmt in June. The revision reflects an increase in planted area, despite a slight downgrade in yield to 4.51 mt/ha from 4.57 mt/ha. The corn production forecast was also raised to 31.8 mmt from 27.7 mmt.

SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2025 by 1.1 mmt to 87.2 mmt. The figure is expected to be well above last year’s 82.6 mmt and close to the multi-year average of 88.3 mmt. The revision follows record-high yields in Siberia and the Urals.

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