Andrey Sizov
12.09.2025
Grain futures rose on Thursday. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.21/bu ($192/mt; +1.2% from Wednesday). The December HRW wheat contract increased to $5.10/bu ($187/mt; +0.6%). The December Euronext wheat contract settled at €189.50/mt ($222/mt; +0.4%). The December U.S. corn contract climbed to $4.20/bu ($165/mt; +0.6%).
Brazil’s Conab raised its corn production estimate to 139.7 mmt, up from 137.0 mmt a month earlier and 115.5 mmt last year.
European firm Expana pegged EU soft wheat production at 136.1 mmt, 3.3 mmt above the August estimate. The crop is expected to set a new record, surpassing the previous high of 135.6 mmt set in 2015.
Argentina completed its corn harvest, collecting 49.0 mmt in line with analyst expectations, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said.
As of September 11, 98% of Argentina’s wheat crop was rated in good or excellent condition, compared with 79% a year earlier and a five-year average of 75%.
The USDA will release its September WASDE report on Friday. Market participants expect U.S. wheat ending stocks at 23.5 mmt (-0.2 mmt from the August forecast) and corn stocks at 51.1 mmt (-2.7 mmt). Global wheat ending stocks are projected at 261.1 mmt (+1.0 mmt from August), and corn stocks at 281.6 mmt (-0.9 mmt).
Last week, FOB prices for 12.5% protein wheat fell by $4 to $228–230/mt, the lowest since early July. Russian export prices declined on weaker domestic prices, high supply, and sluggish demand.
