Andrey Sizov
01.10.2025
Grain futures declined on Tuesday. December SRW wheat closed at $5.08/bu ($187/mt; -2.2% from Monday). December HRW wheat fell to $4.98/bu ($183/mt; -2.1%). December Euronext wheat settled at €186.25/mt ($219/mt; -1.2%). December U.S. corn dropped to $4.15/bu ($164/mt; -1.4%).
The USDA released its quarterly grain stocks report. As of September 1, U.S. corn stocks totaled 38.9 mmt, above the market estimate of 34.0 mmt but below last year’s 44.8 mmt. Wheat stocks were reported at 57.7 mmt, above the expected 55.6 mmt and last year’s 54.2 mmt.
The USDA also raised its final estimate for U.S. corn production in the 2024/25 season to 378.3 mmt from 377.6 mmt, broadly in line with the market forecast of 378.1 mmt.
A government shutdown began in the U.S. on October 1 after Senate Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a budget agreement for the new fiscal year. Several federal agencies, including the USDA, suspended operations. During the last shutdown in 2018, the USDA halted publication of key reports.
Ukraine exported 2.1 mmt of grain from September 1 to 29, down from 2.8 mmt a year earlier, according to the country’s Ministry of Economy. Total grain exports since the start of the season reached 6.3 mmt, compared to 10.3 mmt last year.
From July 1 to September 28, EU soft wheat exports totaled 4.4 mmt, down from 6.4 mmt a year ago, according to the European Commission. Analysts noted that grain export figures from France, Bulgaria, and Ireland are incomplete.
As of September 26, average wheat yield in Siberia reached 2.7 mt/ha compared with 2.2 mt/ha a year earlier and a five-year average of 1.9 mt/ha, SovEcon said. Wheat yield in Siberia is at record high due to favorable weather through most of the season.
