Andrey Sizov
19.11.2024
On Monday, US grain futures rose. The March SRW wheat contract closed at $5.66/bu ($208/mt), up 2.1% from Friday. The March HRW wheat contract in Kansas increased to $5.67/bu ($208/mt), up 2.7%. The March Euronext wheat contract closed at €226.50/mt ($240/mt), up 1.1%. The March US corn contract rose to $4.40/bu ($173/mt), up 1.0%.
Andrey Sizov: “Wheat prices strengthened significantly due to heightened tensions in the Black Sea region following reports that Washington authorized Kyiv to use ATACMS long-range missiles against Russia. Additional support came from a substantial weakening of the US dollar, with the DXY trading at 106.2 (-0.4%) by Monday evening.”
For the week ending November 14, US wheat exports totaled 196,000 mt, below the market estimate of 300,000–425,000 mt, according to USDA data.
As of November 17, 49% of US winter wheat was rated in good or excellent condition, up from 44% a week ago and above the market expectation of 46%. The sharp improvement followed heavy rainfall. Winter wheat planting was 94% complete, compared to the five-year average of 96%.
As of November 18, Ukraine had exported 16.4 million mt of grain in the 2024/25 season, compared to 12.0 million mt a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. November exports totaled 2.0 million mt, down from 2.8 million mt in the same period last year.
SovEcon is hosting a webinar on Black Sea grain market in 2024/25. Join us next Thursday, November 21; 10:30AM US Eastern / 4:30PM Central European / 6:30PM Moscow. Check out our website to find out more
