Andrey Sizov
17.11.2025
Grain futures declined on Friday. December SRW wheat closed at $5.27/bu ($194/mt; -1.6% from Thursday). December HRW wheat dropped to $5.15/bu ($189/mt; -2.0%). December Euronext wheat settled at €188.25/mt ($219/mt; -0.7%). December U.S. corn declined to $4.30/bu ($169/mt; -2.5%).
The USDA released its November WASDE update, the first since the late-September shutdown. U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised to 24.5 mmt (+1.6 mmt vs. September; +0.9 mmt vs. market estimate). Corn ending stocks were raised to 54.7 mmt (+1.1 mmt; +0.4 mmt). Global wheat ending stocks were raised to 271.4 mmt (+7.4 mmt; +5.3 mmt), while corn stocks were lowered to 281.3 mmt (-0.1 mmt MoM; -1.4 mmt vs. market).
The USDA increased its Russian wheat production forecast by 1.5 mmt to 86.5 mmt, compared to SovEcon’s latest public estimate of 87.8 mmt. The export forecast was lowered by 1.0 mmt to 44.0 mmt, close to SovEcon’s estimate of 43.8 mmt.
As of November 14, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 47.9 mmt of grain (vs. 52.1 mmt a year earlier) from 9.8 mln ha (10.6 mln ha), with an average yield of 4.88 mt/ha (4.89 mt/ha), according to the Economy Ministry. Corn harvest amounted to 17.9 mmt (vs. 22.3 mmt).
As of November 10, 5.1 mln ha of winter grains had been planted in Ukraine (94% of the plan), compared with 5.0 mln ha (96%) a year earlier.
Starting November 19, Russia’s wheat export duty will rise to RUB 202.7/mt from RUB 185.5/mt the previous week, according to the Agriculture Ministry.
