Andrey Sizov
01.11.2024
On Thursday, grain prices declined. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.70/bu ($210/mt), down 0.5% from Wednesday. The December HRW wheat contract in Kansas dropped to $5.69/bu ($209/mt), down 1.1%. The December wheat contract on Euronext closed at €218.00/mt ($242/mt), down 0.6%. The December U.S. corn contract remained at $4.11/bu ($162/mt), down 0.2%.
The European Commission lowered its forecast for EU wheat production in 2024/25 to 112.6 million mt from 114.6 million mt a month earlier. The corn production forecast was reduced to 58.0 million mt from 60.1 million mt.
As of October 31, Ukraine had harvested 48 million mt of grain from 91% of its planted area, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy. This includes 22.3 million mt of wheat and 18.3 million mt of corn.
French wheat planting was 41% complete, up from 21% the previous week but down from 60% last year, according to FranceAgriMer. The French corn harvest was 38% complete, up from 25% the previous week but down from 89% last year.
Argentine corn planting area may exceed the initially projected 6.3 million hectares, reported the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Analysts attribute this potential increase to a reduced population of leafhoppers, which severely affected crops last season. As of October 30, Argentina had planted 2.2 million hectares of corn.
As of October 30, Argentina had harvested 538,000 mt of wheat from 482,000 hectares, with an average yield of 1.12 mt/ha, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Wheat harvest completion stood at 8%.
Algeria’s OAIC purchased up to 600,000 mt of wheat at $263/mt (C&F) in an international tender, Reuters reported, citing traders. A significant portion of the wheat is expected to be sourced from Black Sea countries.
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports to 45.9 million metric tons (MMT) from 47.6 MMT last month. This is the lowest export level since the 2021/22 season when 33.4 MMT was exported. Exports are expected to be below recent years’ levels on smaller crop and export restrictions.
