SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – May 26, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

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On Friday, grain futures declined. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $5.42/bu ($199/mt; -0.4% compared to Thursday). The July HRW wheat contract in Kansas fell to $5.39/bu ($198/mt; -0.3%). The September Euronext wheat contract settled at €206.50/mt ($235/mt; -1.3%). The July U.S. corn contract dropped to $4.59/bu ($181/mt; -0.8%).

The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global ending wheat stocks in 2025/26 to 585 mmt, up 5 mmt from the April estimate and 4 mmt above last year’s figure. Wheat ending stocks were raised by 2 mmt to 262 mmt, and corn stocks by 3 mmt to 284 mmt.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) released its first 2025 grain crop forecast. According to the agency, Turkey will produce 37.4 mmt of grains in 2025, down 4.1% year over year. Wheat production is estimated at 19.6 mmt (-5.8% YoY) and corn at 8.5 mmt (-4.9% YoY).

Russia’s wheat export duty will decline to 1,365.5 rub/mt starting May 28 from 1,550.3 rub/mt a week earlier, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

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