Andrey Sizov
21.03.2025
On Thursday, wheat prices declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.57/bu ($205/mt; -1.1% compared to Wednesday). The May HRW wheat contract in Kansas fell to $5.86/bu ($215/mt; -1.4%). The May Euronext wheat contract settled at €226.75/mt ($246/mt; -0.2%). The May U.S. corn contract rose to $4.69/bu ($185/mt; +1.5%).
U.S. wheat sales were significantly below expectations due to revised sales volumes to several countries. As a result, net sales for the current season were negative at -249,000 mt, while analysts had forecasted 300,000–700,000 mt. However, sales for the next season reached 491,000 mt, far exceeding expectations of 25,000–100,000 mt.
The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global wheat production in the current season by 2 mmt to 799 mmt, citing improved crop outlooks in Australia and Argentina. IGC also increased its global corn production estimate by 1 mmt to 1,217 mmt.
IGC released its first projections for grain production in the 2025/26 season. Wheat production is forecast at 807 mmt, while corn production is expected to reach 1,269 mmt.
Last week, bids for Russian 12.5% wheat in deep-sea ports dropped to 17,300–17,800 rub/mt from 17,500–18,000 rub/mt the previous week, as per SovEcon estimate. This marks the first price decline since mid-February. The price drop was driven by exporters lowering purchase prices.
